90th Academy Awards: Predictions, Round II

Image courtesy of A24.

The 90th Academy Awards will be taking place tonight – and it’ll feature one of the closest Best Picture races in years. Here’s TFW’s final take on who will win…and who ought to win instead:

Overall Distribution of Categories

LOCK LIKELY LEAN TOSS-UP
Director Cinematography Picture Original Screenplay
4 Acting Categories Production Design Song Foreign Language Film
Adapted Screenplay Costume Design Film Editing Documentary
Animated Film Visual Effects Documentary Short
Original Score Sound Editing Animated Short
Makeup  Sound Mixing Live Action Short


Overall Tally for Best Picture Nominees

Best Pic Nominee Predicted Number of Oscars Possible Range TFW Rating
Call Me by Your Name 1 1-1 ****
Darkest Hour 2 2-2 *
Dunkirk 1 0-4 ***
Get Out 1 0-2 ****
Lady Bird 0 0-0 ****
Phantom Thread 1 0-1 ****
The Post 0 0-0 ** ½
The Shape of Water 4 2-5 *** ½
Three Billboards 2 2-4 ***

Category-by-category predictions can be found below. Click on the following links if you want to jump to a specific section:

LOCK
LIKELY
LEAN
TOSS-UP

Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight Pictures.

LOCK

The frontrunners in these categories are all virtually guaranteed to win.

Director 

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) 

Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)

Snubbed: Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name), Terence Davies (A Quiet Passion), Sean Baker (The Florida Project).

Actor

Will Win: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Should Win: Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name) or Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread).

Snubbed: Robert Pattinson (Good Time), Adam Sandler (The Meyerowitz Stories), Josh O’Connor (God’s Own Country).

Actress

Will Win: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Should Win: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

Snubbed: Sally Hawkins (Maudie), Rooney Mara (A Ghost Story), Cynthia Nixon (A Quiet Passion).

Supporting Actor

Will Win: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Should Win: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Snubbed: Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name), Tracy Letts (Lady Bird), Bob Odenkirk (The Post).

Supporting Actress

Will Win: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Should Win: Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)

Snubbed: Elizabeth Marvel (The Meyerowitz Stories), Tilda Swinton (Okja).

Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Call Me by Your Name 

Should Win: Call Me by Your Name

Animated Film

Will Win: Coco 

Should Win: The Breadwinner 

Original Score

Will Win: The Shape of Water 

Should Win: Phantom Thread 

Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win: Darkest Hour 

Should Win: Darkest Hour

Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight Pictures.

LIKELY

These races all have a clear frontrunner, but upsets aren’t out of the question.

Cinematography

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049 

Could Win: Dunkirk 

Should Win: Blade Runner 2049

Snubbed: Phantom ThreadCall Me by Your Name.

Production Design

Will Win: The Shape of Water 

Could Win: Blade Runner 2049 

Should Win: The Shape of Water

Costume Design

Will Win: Phantom Thread 

Could Win: The Shape of Water 

Should Win: Phantom Thread

Image courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics.

LEAN

There’s a favorite in all of these categories – but the advantage each frontrunner holds is slim.

Picture

Will Win: The Shape of Water

Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri or Get Out

Should Win: Call Me by Your Name or Phantom Thread

Snubbed: A Ghost Story, The Florida Project, A Quiet Passion, Lady Macbeth

Original Song

Will Win: “Remember Me”

Could Win: “This Is Me”

Should Win: “Mighty River”

Film Editing

Will Win: Baby Driver 

Could Win: Dunkirk

Should Win: I, Tonya

Visual Effects

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049

Could Win: War for the Planet of the Apes

Sound Editing

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049

Could Win: Dunkirk

Sound Mixing

Will Win: Dunkirk

Could Win: Blade Runner 2049

Image courtesy of Focus Features.

TOSS-UP

These categories could go in any direction; no film holds a clear advantage in any of them.

Original Screenplay

Will Win: Get Out 

Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Should Win: Lady Bird 

Foreign Language Film

Will Win: A Fantastic Woman

Could Win: Any of the five.

Should Win: Loveless

Documentary

Will Win: Faces Places 

Could Win: Any of the five.

Documentary Short Subject

Will Win: Heroin(e)

Could Win: Any of the five.

Animated Short

Will Win: Dear Basketball

Could Win: Any of the five.

Should Win: Revolting Rhymes

Live Action Short

Will Win: DeKalb Elementary

Could Win: Any of the five.

Should Win: DeKalb Elementary