Nominations for this year’s Academy Awards were announced this morning. Here’s a look at who currently appears favored to win:
PICTURE
| Film | TFW Rating |
| Black Panther | *** |
| BlacKkKlansman | **** |
| Bohemian Rhapsody | * ½ |
| The Favourite | ** |
| Green Book | * |
| Roma | ** ½ |
| A Star Is Born | ** |
| Vice | * ½ |
WILL: As of now, no film has a lock on this category. Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody won big at the Golden Globes, but neither of them received a nomination for Best Director. Meanwhile, Roma won at the Critics’ Choice Awards, but the Golden Globes and Producers Guild both passed it over. Bradley Cooper’s failure to get a nod for Best Director has probably killed A Star Is Born’s chances. And while both The Favourite and BlacKkKlansman have received a slew of nominations during this awards season, neither of them has actually won anything.
As of now, Roma probably has a slight edge. But that could easily change.
SHOULD: None of them. Roma isn’t bad, but it also has significant flaws, and I wouldn’t be comfortable giving it the top prize. (Ditto for Black Panther.) I gave BlacKkKlansman an enthusiastic four-star review back in August, but I’m not so sure I’d give it the same rating today. And the rest of the lineup is frankly disappointing.
SNUBBED: Zama; Leave No Trace; Burning; Monrovia, Indiana; If Beale Street Could Talk.
DIRECTOR
| Director | Film |
| Alfonso Cuarón | Roma |
| Yorgos Lanthimos | The Favourite |
| Spike Lee | BlacKkKlansman |
| Adam McKay | Vice |
| Paweł Pawlikowski | Cold War |
WILL: The Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards both gave this award to Alfonso Cuarón, so he’s the clear favorite.
SHOULD: It’s not as resonant as Ida, but Paweł Pawlikowski’s Cold War is still a very powerful movie, a historical portrait that doubles as a searing love story. It’s unfortunate that Pawlikowski has no actual chance of winning.
SNUBBED: Lucrecia Martel (Zama); Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here); Debra Granik (Leave No Trace); Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk); Frederick Wiseman (Monrovia, Indiana); Lee Chang-dong (Burning).
ACTOR
| Actor | Film |
| Christian Bale | Vice |
| Bradley Cooper | A Star Is Born |
| Willem Dafoe | At Eternity’s Gate |
| Rami Malek | Bohemian Rhapsody |
| Viggo Mortensen | Green Book |
WILL: Having won at both the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards, Christian Bale looks set to win his second Oscar. It helps, too, that he had to undergo a major physical transformation for his role – something that Oscar voters have frequently appreciated in the past.
SHOULD: Willem Dafoe’s portrayal of Vincent van Gogh was gripping, heartfelt, and anything but caricatural. (The same can’t be said for the other nominated performances.)
SNUBBED: Daniel Giménez Cacho (Zama); Yoo Ah-in (Burning); Joaquin Phoenix (You Were Never Really Here).
ACTRESS
| Actor | Film |
| Yalitza Aparicio | Roma |
| Glenn Close | The Wife |
| Olivia Colman | The Favourite |
| Lady Gaga | A Star Is Born |
| Melissa McCarthy | Can You Ever Forgive Me? |
WILL: This race looks to be a contest between Glenn Close and Lady Gaga. Close probably has an edge, given that she beat Lady Gaga at the Golden Globes.
SHOULD: All the nominees in this category have merit. But I’d be inclined to vote for Yalitza Aparicio, whose performance was easily the best thing about Roma.
SNUBBED: Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace); Helena Howard (Madeline’s Madeline); KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk).
SUPPORTING ACTOR
| Actor | Film |
| Mahershala Ali | Green Book |
| Adam Driver | BlacKkKlansman |
| Sam Elliott | A Star Is Born |
| Richard E. Grant | Can You Ever Forgive Me? |
| Sam Rockwell | Vice |
WILL: Two years after collecting one Oscar for Moonlight, Mahershala Ali is once again the frontrunner in this category – if the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards are any guide.
SHOULD: Grant. But let it be noted that the best supporting performance of the year – Steven Yeun in Burning – was not nominated.
SNUBBED: Steven Yeun (Burning).
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| Actor | Film |
| Amy Adams | Vice |
| Marina de Tavira | Roma |
| Regina King | If Beale Street Could Talk |
| Emma Stone | The Favourite |
| Rachel Weisz | The Favourite |
WILL: Regina King has been winning plaudits from critics and awards organizations (Golden Globes, Satellite) alike. At this point, it’s hard to see how anyone else could win.
SHOULD: King was excellent, but hers was hardly the best performance in If Beale Street Could Talk. My vote goes to Emma Stone for her vicious – yet always entertaining – turn in The Favourite.
SNUBBED: Miyu Sasaki (Shoplifters); Molly Parker (Madeline’s Madeline).
