91st Academy Awards: Predictions, Round II

Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight.

This year’s awards season had more than the usual share of snubs, upsets, and flameouts. As a result, tonight’s Oscars contain an abnormally large number of “toss-up” categories – and the odds that I’ll be able to correctly predict all 24 winners are slim to none. Since it never hurts to try, however, here’s a look at who’s favored to win:

Overall Distribution of Categories

LOCK LIKELY LEAN TOSS-UP
Director Actor Picture Adapted Screenplay
Supporting Actor Actress Supporting Actress Original Screenplay
Animated Film Cinematography Documentary Original Score
Foreign Language Film Sound Mixing Sound Editing Film Editing
Original Song Visual Effects
Makeup Production Design
Costume Design
3 Shorts

Overall Tally for Best Picture Nominees

Best Picture Nominee Predicted Number of Oscars Possible Range TFW Rating
Black Panther 3 0-3 ***
BlacKkKlansman 1 0-2 ***
Bohemian Rhapsody 4 0-4 * ½
The Favourite 0 0-7 **
Green Book 2 1-3 *
Roma 4 2-7 ** ½
A Star Is Born 1 1-2 **
Vice 1 1-4 * ½
Image courtesy of Netflix.

LOCK

Director 

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)

Should Win: Paweł Pawlikowski (Cold War)

Snubbed: Lucrecia Martel (Zama); Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here); Debra Granik (Leave No Trace); Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk); Frederick Wiseman (Monrovia, Indiana); Lee Chang-dong (Burning)

Supporting Actor

Will Win: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)

Should Win: Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Snubbed: Steven Yeun (Burning)

Animated Film

Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Should Win: None of them.

Snubbed: Have a Nice Day; Tito and the Birds

Foreign Language Film

Will Win: Roma

Should Win: Shoplifters

Snubbed: Burning; Ash Is Purest White; 24 Frames; Happy as Lazzaro

Original Song 

Will Win: “Shallow” (A Star Is Born)

Should Win: “Shallow” (A Star Is Born)

Makeup

Will Win: Vice

Should Win: Border

Snubbed: Stan & Ollie; The Favourite

Image courtesy of Universal.

LIKELY

Actor 

Will Win: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)

Could Win: Christian Bale (Vice)

Should Win: Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)

Snubbed: Daniel Giménez Cacho (Zama); Yoo Ah-in (Burning); Joaquin Phoenix (You Were Never Really Here); John Huston (The Other Side of the Wind)

Actress

Will Win: Glenn Close (The Wife)

Could Win: Olivia Colman (The Favourite) or Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)

Should Win: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)

Snubbed: Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace); Helena Howard (Madeline’s Madeline); KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Cinematography

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Cold War

Should Win: Cold War

Snubbed: Burning; The Other Side of the Wind; Monrovia, Indiana

Sound Mixing

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Could Win: Roma or A Star Is Born

Image courtesy of Focus Features.

LEAN

Picture

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Green Book or The Favourite

Should Win: None of them.

Snubbed: Zama; Leave No Trace; Burning; Monrovia, Indiana; If Beale Street Could Talk

Supporting Actress

Will Win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Could Win: Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) or Amy Adams (Vice)

Should Win: Emma Stone (The Favourite)

Snubbed: Miyu Sasaki (Shoplifters); Molly Parker (Madeline’s Madeline)

Documentary

Will Win: Free Solo

Could Win: RBG

Should Win: Hale County, This Morning, This Evening or Minding the Gap

Snubbed: Monrovia, Indiana; Shirkers; Did You Wonder Who Fired the Gun?

Sound Editing

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Could Win: Roma or A Quiet Place

Image courtesy of 20th Century Fox.

TOSS-UP

Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: BlacKkKlansman

Could Win: If Beale Street Could Talk or Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Snubbed: Leave No Trace; Zama; Burning; Les gardiennes

Original Screenplay

Will Win: Green Book

Could Win: The Favourite, Roma, or First Reformed

Should Win: None of them.

Snubbed: Eighth Grade; The Other Side of the Wind; Madeline’s Madeline

Original Score

Will Win: Black Panther

Could Win: BlacKkKlansman or If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk or Isle of Dogs

Snubbed: You Were Never Really Here

Film Editing

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Could Win: Vice or The Favourite

Visual Effects

Will Win: First Man

Could Win: Avengers: Infinity War

Production Design

Will Win: Black Panther

Could Win: The Favourite or Roma

Should Win: Roma

Costume Design

Will Win: Black Panther

Could Win: The Favourite

Should Win: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Animated Short

Will Win: Weekends

Could Win: Any of them.

Live Action Short 

Will Win: Mother

Could Win: Any of them.

Documentary Short

Will Win: A Night at the Garden

Could Win: Any of them.