This year’s awards season had more than the usual share of snubs, upsets, and flameouts. As a result, tonight’s Oscars contain an abnormally large number of “toss-up” categories – and the odds that I’ll be able to correctly predict all 24 winners are slim to none. Since it never hurts to try, however, here’s a look at who’s favored to win:
Overall Distribution of Categories
| LOCK | LIKELY | LEAN | TOSS-UP |
| Director | Actor | Picture | Adapted Screenplay |
| Supporting Actor | Actress | Supporting Actress | Original Screenplay |
| Animated Film | Cinematography | Documentary | Original Score |
| Foreign Language Film | Sound Mixing | Sound Editing | Film Editing |
| Original Song | Visual Effects | ||
| Makeup | Production Design | ||
| Costume Design | |||
| 3 Shorts |
Overall Tally for Best Picture Nominees
| Best Picture Nominee | Predicted Number of Oscars | Possible Range | TFW Rating |
| Black Panther | 3 | 0-3 | *** |
| BlacKkKlansman | 1 | 0-2 | *** |
| Bohemian Rhapsody | 4 | 0-4 | * ½ |
| The Favourite | 0 | 0-7 | ** |
| Green Book | 2 | 1-3 | * |
| Roma | 4 | 2-7 | ** ½ |
| A Star Is Born | 1 | 1-2 | ** |
| Vice | 1 | 1-4 | * ½ |
LOCK
Director
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Should Win: Paweł Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Snubbed: Lucrecia Martel (Zama); Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here); Debra Granik (Leave No Trace); Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk); Frederick Wiseman (Monrovia, Indiana); Lee Chang-dong (Burning)
Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Should Win: Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Snubbed: Steven Yeun (Burning)
Animated Film
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Should Win: None of them.
Snubbed: Have a Nice Day; Tito and the Birds
Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Roma
Should Win: Shoplifters
Snubbed: Burning; Ash Is Purest White; 24 Frames; Happy as Lazzaro
Original Song
Will Win: “Shallow” (A Star Is Born)
Should Win: “Shallow” (A Star Is Born)
Makeup
Will Win: Vice
Should Win: Border
Snubbed: Stan & Ollie; The Favourite
LIKELY
Actor
Will Win: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Could Win: Christian Bale (Vice)
Should Win: Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
Snubbed: Daniel Giménez Cacho (Zama); Yoo Ah-in (Burning); Joaquin Phoenix (You Were Never Really Here); John Huston (The Other Side of the Wind)
Actress
Will Win: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Could Win: Olivia Colman (The Favourite) or Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Should Win: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Snubbed: Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace); Helena Howard (Madeline’s Madeline); KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Cinematography
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Cold War
Should Win: Cold War
Snubbed: Burning; The Other Side of the Wind; Monrovia, Indiana
Sound Mixing
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Could Win: Roma or A Star Is Born
LEAN
Picture
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Green Book or The Favourite
Should Win: None of them.
Snubbed: Zama; Leave No Trace; Burning; Monrovia, Indiana; If Beale Street Could Talk
Supporting Actress
Will Win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Could Win: Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) or Amy Adams (Vice)
Should Win: Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Snubbed: Miyu Sasaki (Shoplifters); Molly Parker (Madeline’s Madeline)
Documentary
Will Win: Free Solo
Could Win: RBG
Should Win: Hale County, This Morning, This Evening or Minding the Gap
Snubbed: Monrovia, Indiana; Shirkers; Did You Wonder Who Fired the Gun?
Sound Editing
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Could Win: Roma or A Quiet Place
TOSS-UP
Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Could Win: If Beale Street Could Talk or Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Snubbed: Leave No Trace; Zama; Burning; Les gardiennes
Original Screenplay
Will Win: Green Book
Could Win: The Favourite, Roma, or First Reformed
Should Win: None of them.
Snubbed: Eighth Grade; The Other Side of the Wind; Madeline’s Madeline
Original Score
Will Win: Black Panther
Could Win: BlacKkKlansman or If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk or Isle of Dogs
Snubbed: You Were Never Really Here
Film Editing
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Could Win: Vice or The Favourite
Visual Effects
Will Win: First Man
Could Win: Avengers: Infinity War
Production Design
Will Win: Black Panther
Could Win: The Favourite or Roma
Should Win: Roma
Costume Design
Will Win: Black Panther
Could Win: The Favourite
Should Win: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Animated Short
Will Win: Weekends
Could Win: Any of them.
Live Action Short
Will Win: Mother
Could Win: Any of them.
Documentary Short
Will Win: A Night at the Garden
Could Win: Any of them.
