Over the past few weeks, 1917 has (unsurprisingly) emerged as the frontrunner for this year’s Academy Awards. As the producers of La La Land would be happy to tell you, however, no movie can ever claim to have a lock on the Best Picture category, and several other films – particularly Parasite – could still end up winning. What follows are predictions for who will win in each category.
Overall Distribution of Categories
| LOCK | LIKELY | LEAN | TOSS-UP |
| Director | Picture | Animated Film | Original Screenplay |
| Acting Categories (4) | Production Design | Documentary | Adapted Screenplay |
| Score | Costume Design | Film Editing | Visual Effects |
| Song | Makeup | Sound Editing | |
| International Film | Sound Mixing | ||
| Cinematography | Shorts Categories (3) |
Overall Tally for Best Picture Nominees
| Film | Predicted Number of Oscars | Range | TFW Rating |
| Ford v Ferrari | 1 | 0-3 | * ½ |
| The Irishman | 1 | 0-1 | *** |
| Jojo Rabbit | 0 | 0-2 | * |
| Joker | 2 | 2-3 | ** |
| Little Women | 2 | 0-2 | *** |
| Marriage Story | 1 | 1-1 | ** ½ |
| 1917 | 4 | 2-6 | * |
| Once Upon a Time in Hollywood | 3 | 1-4 | ** ½ |
| Parasite | 1 | 1-4 | *** |
LOCK
Director
Will: Sam Mendes (1917)
Should: Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
Snubbed: Céline Sciamma (Portrait of a Lady on Fire), Bi Gan (Long Day’s Journey Into Night), Hu Bo (An Elephant Sitting Still), Lila Avilés (The Chambermaid), and Nadav Lapid (Synonyms).
Actor
Will: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Should: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Snubbed: Among others: Tom Mercier (Synonyms), Brad Pitt (Ad Astra), and Franz Rogowski (Transit).
Actress
Will: Renée Zellweger (Judy)
Should: Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Snubbed: Gabriela Cartol (The Chambermaid), Alfre Woodard (Clemency), Mary Kay Place (Diane), Honor Swinton Byrne (The Souvenir), Noémie Merlant and Adèle Haenel (Portrait of a Lady on Fire).
Supporting Actor
Will: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Should: Pitt
Snubbed: Tom Burke (The Souvenir), Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse).
Supporting Actress
Will: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Should: Florence Pugh (Lady Macbeth)
Snubbed: Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell), Taylor Russell (Waves).
International Feature Film
Will: Parasite
Should: Les Misérables
Snubbed: Portrait of a Lady on Fire, The Chambermaid, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Score
Will: Joker
Should: 1917
Song
Will: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” (Rocketman)
Cinematography
Will: 1917
Should: The Lighthouse
Snubbed: Long Day’s Journey Into Night, An Elephant Sitting Still, The Chambermaid, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
LIKELY
Picture
Will: 1917
Could: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
Should: Little Women
Snubbed: Among others: The Chambermaid, Rojo, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Synonyms, Long Day’s Journey Into Night, Ash Is Purest White, An Elephant Sitting Still, and The Last Black Man in San Francisco.
Production Design
Will: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could: Parasite
Should: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Snubbed: Knives Out, Long Day’s Journey Into Night, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Costume Design
Will: Little Women
Could: Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should: Little Women
LEAN
Animated Film
Will: Klaus
Could: Missing Link, Toy Story 4
Should: I Lost My Body
Documentary
Will: For Sama
Could: American Factory, Honeyland
Should: For Sama
Snubbed: When Lambs Become Lions
Film Editing
Will: Ford v Ferrari
Could: Parasite
Should: Parasite
Makeup
Will: Bombshell
Could: Joker, 1917
Should: Bombshell
TOSS-UP
Original Screenplay
Will: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could: Parasite
Should: Parasite
Adapted Screenplay
Will: Little Women
Could: Jojo Rabbit
Should: Little Women
Sound Editing
Will: 1917
Could: Ford v Ferrari
Sound Mixing
Will: 1917
Could: Ford v Ferrari
Visual Effects
Will: The Irishman
Could: 1917, Avengers: Endgame
Three Short Film Categories
These three categories are crapshoots, and in each case, any of the five nominees could win.
Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
Animated Short: Kitbull
Live Action Short: Brotherhood
