92nd Academy Awards: Predictions, Round II

Image courtesy of Netflix.

Over the past few weeks, 1917 has (unsurprisingly) emerged as the frontrunner for this year’s Academy Awards. As the producers of La La Land would be happy to tell you, however, no movie can ever claim to have a lock on the Best Picture category, and several other films – particularly Parasite – could still end up winning. What follows are predictions for who will win in each category.

Overall Distribution of Categories

LOCK LIKELY LEAN TOSS-UP
Director Picture Animated Film Original Screenplay
Acting Categories (4) Production Design Documentary Adapted Screenplay
Score Costume Design Film Editing Visual Effects
Song Makeup Sound Editing
International Film Sound Mixing
Cinematography Shorts Categories (3)


Overall Tally for Best Picture Nominees

Film Predicted Number of Oscars Range TFW Rating
Ford v Ferrari 1 0-3 * ½
The Irishman 1 0-1 ***
Jojo Rabbit 0 0-2 *
Joker 2 2-3 **
Little Women 2 0-2 ***
Marriage Story 1 1-1 ** ½
1917 4 2-6 *
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 3 1-4 ** ½
Parasite 1 1-4 ***

Image courtesy of Universal.

LOCK

Director

Will: Sam Mendes (1917)

Should: Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)

Snubbed: Céline Sciamma (Portrait of a Lady on Fire), Bi Gan (Long Day’s Journey Into Night), Hu Bo (An Elephant Sitting Still), Lila Avilés (The Chambermaid), and Nadav Lapid (Synonyms).

Actor

Will: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Should: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)

Snubbed: Among others: Tom Mercier (Synonyms), Brad Pitt (Ad Astra), and Franz Rogowski (Transit).

Actress

Will: Renée Zellweger (Judy) 

Should: Charlize Theron (Bombshell)

Snubbed: Gabriela Cartol (The Chambermaid), Alfre Woodard (Clemency), Mary Kay Place (Diane), Honor Swinton Byrne (The Souvenir), Noémie Merlant and Adèle Haenel (Portrait of a Lady on Fire).

Supporting Actor

Will: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Should: Pitt

Snubbed: Tom Burke (The Souvenir), Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse).

Supporting Actress

Will: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

Should: Florence Pugh (Lady Macbeth)

Snubbed: Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell), Taylor Russell (Waves).

International Feature Film

Will: Parasite 

Should: Les Misérables

Snubbed: Portrait of a Lady on Fire, The Chambermaid, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Score

Will: Joker

Should: 1917

Song

Will: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” (Rocketman)

Cinematography

Will: 1917

Should: The Lighthouse

Snubbed: Long Day’s Journey Into Night, An Elephant Sitting Still, The Chambermaid, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Image courtesy of Sony.

LIKELY

Picture

Will: 1917 

Could: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

Should: Little Women

Snubbed: Among others: The Chambermaid, Rojo, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Synonyms, Long Day’s Journey Into Night, Ash Is Purest White, An Elephant Sitting Still, and The Last Black Man in San Francisco.

Production Design

Will: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Could: Parasite

Should: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Snubbed: Knives Out, Long Day’s Journey Into Night, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Costume Design

Will: Little Women

Could: Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Should: Little Women

Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight.

LEAN

Animated Film

Will: Klaus

Could: Missing Link, Toy Story 4

Should: I Lost My Body

Documentary

Will: For Sama

Could: American Factory, Honeyland

Should: For Sama

Snubbed: When Lambs Become Lions

Film Editing

Will: Ford v Ferrari

Could: Parasite

Should: Parasite

Makeup

Will: Bombshell

Could: Joker, 1917

Should: Bombshell

Image courtesy of Netflix.

TOSS-UP

Original Screenplay

Will: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Could: Parasite

Should: Parasite

Adapted Screenplay

Will: Little Women

Could: Jojo Rabbit 

Should: Little Women

Sound Editing

Will: 1917

Could: Ford v Ferrari

Sound Mixing

Will: 1917

Could: Ford v Ferrari

Visual Effects

Will: The Irishman

Could: 1917, Avengers: Endgame

Three Short Film Categories

These three categories are crapshoots, and in each case, any of the five nominees could win.

Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone

Animated Short: Kitbull

Live Action Short: Brotherhood